以下為Warren Buffett的Buy American. I Am. 試譯版
藍色 部份為課後修改過的部份。




◎此翻譯也花了不少時間和心血,若須參考或引用請告知◎

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錢進美股

 

美國國內外金融市場一團糟,而且問題已經蔓延整個經濟體,金融危機原本只是緩緩滲透實體經濟,如今卻爆發開來,再過不久,失業人口會增加,企業投資趨緩,新聞媒體還會持續報導令人惶恐的消息。

但正因為如此…我已經開始買進美股,我指的是我的私人帳戶,過去我的私人帳戶只有美國公債。(不包括我在波克夏的持股,這部份全然做為慈善基金) 假如股價持續誘人,我波克夏以外的財產很快會百分之百轉為美股。

為什麼?

我的投資原則很簡單:民眾瘋狂買進時,就該謹慎;民眾小心謹慎時,就是我進場的時候。顯然,現在四處瀰漫著恐慌的氣氛,連資深投資人都逃不過。沒錯,投資人的確該提防那些負債過高或缺乏競爭力的企業,但是對國內一些體制良好的企業也感到憂心就沒道理。當然,這些企業可能會遭遇收益受挫的情況,過去也發生過;但多數大公司,五年、十年或二十年內還是會創獲利新高。

有一點我必須說清楚:我無法預測股票市場的短期走勢,我完全不知道股市這個月或未來一年會上漲還是走跌,但股市很可能在信心回升或經濟回穩前就已經上漲,而且漲幅可能會相當可觀;也就是說,如果等待經濟的燕子出現,可能已錯失市場的春天

讓我們回顧一下歷史:經濟大蕭條期間,道瓊指數在193278跌到41的低點,經濟狀況持續惡化,一直到19333月羅斯福總統上任才好轉;即便如此,羅斯福總統上任前道瓊指數仍然上漲百分之三十。或者想想第二次世界大戰初期的情況,美國當時在歐洲和太平洋的戰事不利,股市19424月觸底,而早在盟軍情勢逆轉前,股市就已經反彈。再看80年代初期,當通膨率高漲、經濟嚴重衰退的時候,正是買股時機。簡單來說,一有壞消息,很可能就是進場的大好時機,這時候你可以低價投資美國的未來。

長遠來看,股市新聞一定會轉好。美國20世紀遭逢兩次世界大戰和幾次代價慘重的戰爭,走過經濟大蕭條以及多次經濟衰退和金融恐慌,經歷幾次石油危機和一波大流感,甚至還有過引咎辭職的總統;即使如此,道瓊指數依舊從66點漲到11,497點。

你可能會覺得20世紀漲幅這麼大,一定沒有人賠錢,但還是有人賠了,這些人之所以運氣不好,是因為他們只在覺得心安的時候買進,一出現令他不安的新聞就賣出。

今天,持有現金的人覺得很安心,其實是不對的。就長期資產來說,現金是糟透了的選項,幾乎沒有利潤,還註定貶值。更確切的來說,目前政府為因應當前危機所採取的政策可能會造成通貨膨脹,進而加速現金貶值。

從實質面來看,股票未來十年的收益,幾乎是絕對勝過現金,現在緊握現金的投資者認為他們之後一定可以找到進場的時間點,但是等待讓人心安的好消息時,他們都忘了偉恩葛瑞斯基(Wayne Gretzky)講過的一句話:「打曲棍球應洞悉球路,而不是思考球剛剛在哪。」

我不喜歡對股市發表太多言論,而且我得再次強調,我不知道股票市場短期內的漲跌,但我會跟隨某間餐廳的腳步,這餐廳開在曾經是銀行的大樓裡,還立下這樣的廣告標語:「起而行,不如坐而食(採用授課老師譯法)今天我的錢和我的嘴都在說:買股票就對了!


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原文出處:紐約時報  Oct. 16,2008 
連結:http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html

原文完整版:

THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.

Why?

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.

A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.

Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.

Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”

I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities.

Warren E. Buffett is the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified holding company.



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nerdkid

Karen the nerd

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  • sean
  • wow...quite a professional piece of work~ another star is born in
    translation industry!
  • Dear Sean,<br />
    thanks for your kindly compliment~ <br />
    still long way to go to reach the so-call "professional" door la~~ but, indeed, I've been trying hard on it.^^

    nerdkid 於 2011/03/08 21:17 回覆

  • happy508tw
  • 好文章...受益匪淺!...曲棍球那句真耐人尋味呀
  • 很有智慧的一個老先生,也難怪能成為全球首富。<br />
    「該看的是長遠的未來,而不是短視近利」,<br />
    很簡單的道理,但要做到其實不容易,<br />
    不僅要有過人的智慧和冷靜的思考能力,還要很有耐心。<br />
    <br />
    而且這道理不止投資適用,連挑另一半都很適用~XD<br />
    只是.....挑來挑去很容易還是挑到一個賣龍眼的~噗

    nerdkid 於 2011/03/08 21:17 回覆

  • 悄悄話